Correcting Predictions
The following four-step approach to correcting errors in prediction is proposed by experts in decision-making and judgement. The approach is illustrated with two examples.
The following four-step approach to correcting errors in prediction is proposed by experts in decision-making and judgement. The approach is illustrated with two examples.
It is hard to resist making predictions that match the available evidence, even though they lead to statistically absurd predictions.
Sales managers often assume that the most successful salesperson last year will continue to outperform. Senior executives sometimes meet an exceptionally talented candidate and imagine how the new hire will rise to the top of the organisation.
These are examples of matching predictions, whereby we intuitively make predictions that match the available evidence. These predictions are too extreme, in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
